With about 10 months to go before the 2026 elections, one of the hot-button topics in California has become a proposal to tax billionaires.

New polling released Tuesday found that supporters of the Billionaire Tax Act face a tough fight in trying to convince voters in reliably liberal California. The proposal, which is currently collecting signatures to be added to the November ballot, calls for a one-time 5% tax on the total wealth of state residents, as of Jan. 1, 2026, with a net worth of a least $1 billion

The proposed tax initiative starts out with 48% in support and 38% opposed, with 14% undecided, according to the Mellman Group, which was hired by Republican strategist Mike Murphy of Kensington Avenue Strategies to conduct the poll on behalf of interested parties, including some high net worth individuals.

The survey, conducted from Jan. 6-12, included responses from 800 voters representing the likely November 2026 electorate in California.

Mellman said the group tested the official title and summary that will appear in voting materials, and noted that ballot initiatives that start below 50% struggle to succeed.

After those surveyed were given positive and negative information about the proposal, support dropped to 46% and opposition increased to 44%. Voters expressed concerns that the measure might hurt the state’s economy and potentially cost jobs.

“There’s no love for billionaires,” Murphy said during a media briefing Tuesday. “But there are severe doubts among voters about whether or not this measure will deliver what it promises.”

The Service Employees International Union Healthcare Workers West is proposing the act, estimating some 200 people in the state would be subject to the tax. Proceeds would be used to offset funding shortfalls for health care in the state, due in part to federal funding cuts.

The poll found that 69% of voters believe it is almost certain or very likely that billionaires will hire lawyers and accountants to avoid the tax, leading the state to collect much less money than projected from the initiative. There’s also concern that billionaires will leave and take their companies with them, damaging the state’s economy. 

Nearly half of respondents said it is almost certain or very likely to be tied up in the courts, and that the billionaires “who already account for much of state tax revenue, will leave California for lower tax states and avoid paying this tax.”

“This data paints a clear picture that this initiative faces an uphill battle,” the Mellman Group said. “Initiatives are in trouble when voters think negative outcomes are significantly more likely than positive outcomes to occur if it passes.”

The proposal has caused rifts in Silicon Valley as prominent tech investors have attacked Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna, who represents the region and has been a vocal supporter of the effort. David Sacks, a venture investor and the White House AI and crypto czar, has railed against the measure, along with tech investors like Chamath Palihapitiya, Vinod Khosla and Y Combinator’s Garry Tan.

Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have left the state as a result of the proposal, according to The New York Times, and Peter Thiel said in recent weeks that he’s established a significant presence in Miami in recent years, including opening up an office for his venture firm.

Even Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom came out in strong opposition, as did San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who is also a Democrat.

But Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, whose net wroth exceeds $150 billion, said in an interview earlier this month with Bloomberg that he’s “perfectly fine with it,” regarding the potential tax. Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he’s planning to stay in the state. 

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told Bloomberg that the tax is “poorly designed.”

The polling found that there’s skepticism over the proposed revenue from the tax in solving the state’s health-care problems, Michael Bloomfield, managing director of the Mellman Group, told reporters.

“We know [health care] is one of the most complex issues people face,” Bloomfield said, adding that messaging around protecting the budget from federal health-care cuts was “least convincing” for respondents.

WATCH: California tax fears fuel exodus debate