While discounts drive purchasing in the early days of the holiday shopping season, consumers are shifting into more thoughtful, quality gifts in the back half of the season as total spending growth slows.
U.S. consumers had spent $187.3 billion so far online between Nov. 1 and Dec. 12, up 6.1% from the same stretch last year, according to Adobe Analytics. Total holiday season e-commerce spend is still expected to cross $253 billion, which would be 5.3% above last year, with the growth rate slowing later into December as delivery in time for Christmas gets tighter.
E-commerce sales typically “slow sharply” from about Dec. 16 to Dec. 18, and then “decline rapidly” in the ensuing days, until Christmas Eve is the slowest shopping day of the season, Casey Armstrong, chief marketing officer for ShipBob, told CNBC. Armstrong said shopping picks up again on Dec. 27, which is typically the strongest day for ShipBob’s customers late in the season. The company is a third-party logistics firm that ships for small, medium and social-oriented brands.
A shopper carries packages in Union Square in San Francisco, California, US, on Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025.
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
For shoppers who are willing to order online in the back half of the season, quality, rather than discounts, is driving interest.
Captify analyzes more than 1 billion search events per day from 3 million websites, and it shows outsize search growth in apparel and athleisure brands including Alo Yoga, Warby Parker, Aritzia, Bombas and Quince into December compared to earlier in the season. Searches for Alo Yoga rose 256% for the period between Dec. 7 and Dec. 15 compared to the stretch from Nov. 28 to Dec. 6. Quince searches are up 124% for those same timeframes.
“These gains point to a rise in thoughtful, quality-driven gifting as shoppers seek products from highly regarded brands” said Oscar Chow, Captify head of insights for the U.S.
RetailNext, which tracks in-store shopping, has also seen evidence of consumers valuing quality this season, even if that means buying fewer items.
“Consumers are willing to pay more to get those decisions right” said Joe Shasteen, global manager of advanced analytics at RetailNext. The firm expects this dynamic to peak in the days leading up to Christmas.
There is also evidence showing a shift toward gifting experiences and subscriptions as the season winds down. Chow said they offer shoppers a “deadline-proof gift.”
Examples include growth in interest in the later weeks of the season for Roblox Robux, Cameo Kids, Kindle Unlimited, Strava Subscription, Peloton All-Access, MasterClass subscriptions and the Disney+, Hulu and HBO Max subscription bundle.
Discounts are still available as holiday shopping winds down, but they’re much lower than during Cyber Week highs. Adobe Analytics said toys will see the biggest promotions, peaking at 15% off list price in December, followed by furniture, bedding and televisions at 10% off.
To be sure, there are discount-motivated consumers throughout the season, which makes toys a strong category. Data from Adobe and Captify show consumers are still seeking out Mattel’s Barbie Dreamhouse, Disney’s Stitch toys, and Play-Doh sets, among others. Armstrong said the Toniebox 2 audio player and the Ms. Rachel Tonies figurine is “a top item driving buzz”.
Stores save Christmas
A woman holds shopping bags as people make their way through Herald Square on Dec. 11, 2025 in New York City.
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty Images
For those that want a physical gift to give, stores are critical in the days leading up to Christmas.
The last Saturday before Christmas has been coined “Super Saturday” by the retail sector and is often one of the top store shopping days of the year. But with Christmas landing on a Thursday this year, the volume will likely be lower on Super Saturday this year than on Dec. 22 through Dec. 24, according to RetailNext.
“We expect some of the highest conversion rates of the season to occur in the final days before Christmas, potentially rivaling or even surpassing Black Friday,” Shasteen of RetailNext said.
The warmer temperatures and dry conditions hitting much of the country this weekend should also help lift store traffic this weekend, according to Evan Gold, Planalytics EVP of global partnerships and alliances.
Shoppers who don’t want to navigate stores, but also don’t want to chance shipping timelines, are increasingly using buy online, pick up in store (BOPIS) options in the final stretch of the holiday shopping season. Adobe Analytics predicts BOPIS will peak on Dec. 22 and Dec. 23, with 32% to 37% of e-commerce orders utilizing the service, a spike in typical usage from the rest of the year.
Kohl’s told CNBC its pickup orders more than double in the week leading up to Christmas and a quarter of shoppers who pickup an online order end up buying something else while they are there.
At Bath and Body Works, about 30% of customers picking up online orders add something before checkout.
It’s also a cost savings for retailers to fulfill online orders from stores. Target has said order pickup or drive-up saves the retailer 90% over brown-box delivery from fulfillment centers. So far this season, three-quarters of its digital orders have been picked up from stores.
Walmart told CNBC last year that weekly scheduled pickup volume increased 14% in the two weeks leading up to Christmas compared to the average volume in the prior 12 weeks. More than 80% of Walmart customers say they shop in-store in the three days before Christmas, according to its customer insights and strategy holiday pulse tracker conducted this month.
Last December, volumes of Walmart Express Delivery, orders fulfilled from store inventory that come with an extra fee, reached 2.5 times the monthly average. The retailer said on Christmas Eve alone, 77% of digital orders were fulfilled via the express option.
While Dick’s Sporting Goods declined to share specifics, the retailer said it sees a “significant uptick in BOPIS” as Christmas nears, and it also sees an “attach rate” for shoppers “to make sure they grab those last-minute gifts on a single trip to the store.”
