Big picture: Winner of virtual sudden death to qualify for the semis

Much like Afghanistan’s match against England, the political spectre over this clash is hard to put aside. Matches are rare between the countries with Australia – like England – taking a human rights stance and pledging to suspend bilateral ties while the Taliban remain in power.

But underlining the complexities of the issue, Australia do play Afghanistan at ICC events – which has led to some criticism – and this intriguing, budding rivalry will resume in Lahore with much at stake.

And, once again, a semi-final spot is up for grabs. The form line is a little hard to read with both teams having tight wins over a wheezing England. Afghanistan bounced back strongly after a disastrous opening against South Africa while Australia’s momentum came to a halt after their clash against the Proteas was washed out.

A back against the wall triumph is in play, but Australia will have to firstly get past rising Afghanistan in a game that feels evenly poised. Afghanistan will lean on their spin-heavy attack, but Australia do have numerous players adept against the turning ball – led by Inglis.

The prospect of more bad weather in Lahore could also play a factor in a clash that is set to be just as compelling as the recent matches between these teams.

Form guide

Australia WLLLL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
Afghanistan WLWWW

There isn’t much cricket history between the countries, but Glenn Maxwell is probably the first name that springs to mind with this match-up. In the last ODI between the teams, a hobbled Maxwell produced one of the greatest ever innings to rescue Australia from the brink at the 2023 World Cup and crush the hearts of Afghanistan. Maxwell enters this match in great form having put the finishing touches against England after a brilliant end to the BBL season. It will be interesting to see if his presence at the crease spooks Afghanistan, who are adamant they haven’t devoted too much of their plans on him.

While Afghanistan’s slew of quality spinners deservedly attracts plenty of attention, seam bowling allrounder Azmatullah Omarzai stole the show against England with his maiden five-wicket haul of his professional career. He was particularly superb at the death with three wickets when the game was on a knife’s edge. Omarzai’s emergence has helped Afghanistan better balance their attack and they are no longer merely reliant on their spinners for success. He’ll need to back up that performance against a formidable Australia batting-order and his canny, skiddy bowling will need to be on point against big-hitting openers Travis Head and Matthew Short. If he can strike early breakthroughs then Afghanistan will be right in the hunt.

Team news: Sean Abbott for Spencer Johnson?

Due to the inclement conditions, team lists weren’t even announced for the Australia-South Africa clash. It makes predicting Australia’s line-up somewhat difficult. The team is mostly settled, but they might be tempted to tweak their bowling attack that leaked 351 runs against England. Left-arm quick Spencer Johnson might be in the selection gun after he was overlooked for the death overs against England. But his pace and bounce could be a weapon against Afghanistan’s top order. Australia, who trained indoors on match eve, will also consider bowling allrounder Sean Abbott, who offers a point of difference and strengthens the batting, and legspinner Tanveer Sangha given Marnus Labuschagne’s part-time legspin played a role against England.

Australia (possible): 1 Matthew Short, 2 Travis Head, 3 Steven Smith (capt), 4 Marnus Labuschagne, 5 Josh Inglis (wk), 6 Alex Carey, 7 Glenn Maxwell, 8 Sean Abbott/Spencer Johnson, 9 Ben Dwarshuis, 10 Nathan Ellis, 11 Adam Zampa

After such a momentous victory, Afghanistan are likely to go unchanged for the third straight game and back their spin strength in subcontinental conditions. The trio of Rashid Khan, Mohammad Nabi and Noor Ahmad will present considerable challenges for the Australians.

Afghanistan (possible): 1 Ibrahim Zadran, 2 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 3 Sediqullah Atal, 4 Rahmat Shah, 5 Hashmatullah Shahidi (capt), 6 Azmatullah Omarzai, 7 Mohammad Nabi, 8 Gulbadin Naib, 9 Rashid Khan, 10 Noor Ahmad, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi

Pitch and conditions

Both teams are now well acquainted with the conditions in Lahore, which have been considerably batting-friendly. While it’s been mostly tough going for pace bowlers, spinners have had an impact despite minimal turn off the surface. After the washout between Australia and South Africa, rain again threatens to spoil the party although the forecast is better from the late afternoon onwards. But with plenty of rain cascading on the ground in the lead-up, drainage could also be an issue.

Stats and trivia

Quotes

“If the whole match rains out, I think that means we go through to the semi-finals, but obviously we’d love to be able to win the game tomorrow and finish top in the pool.”
Australia batter Marnus Labuschagne on the possible rain factor

“We have been planning for all of the Australian team. I know that he played really well in the 2023 World Cup, but that’s part of history. We beat them in the T20 World Cup….we are not coming to the ground to plan on [just one] individual player.”
Afghanistan captain Hashmatullah Shahidi says his team won’t be entirely focused on Maxwell